Cloud Computing + Books = ?
Sometimes change happens so quickly and so naturally that we miss something profound. Something obvious.
If you have Netflix and a device to stream it through your TV, you know exactly what I'm talking about. For 8 bucks a month, Netflix gives us thousands of movies and TV shows on demand, often in high-def. In a matter of months, Netflix has all but made video stores and those movie rental boxes obsolete. It's also made buying individual DVDs seem old-fashioned and pointless.
Now think about books. We know eBooks will be the dominant platform moving forward, and we know that eReaders (or, more likely, tablet computers that read eBooks) will be as common as cell phones in a few years.
Now put these facts together.
Is it possible that, in the near future, selling individual books to individual consumers will be the exception, not the rule? Is it possible that readers will join a Netflix-like "all you can eat" cloud-based service and have unlimited access to thousands of books at any given time?
For authors, revenue can be earned in a number of ways: one time rights acquisition by the service; a per-use payment; shared advertising revenue…or something entirely new. Freed from the task of launching and marketing their books, authors can focus on writing and building their tribes of readers.
Amazon has invested heavily in cloud computing and seems the perfect candidate to launch such a service. Or perhaps there's a new visionary out there ready to make it happen. Either way, keep your eyes peeled.
And look to the clouds.
Excellent piece by music industry analyst Bob Lefsetz on why the future of media is cloud-based.
16 Comments
This is a very interesting idea. I can see how it might work for adult readers, and maybe YA. As a writer of picture books, however, I hope we won't see a complete end of physical books. I don't think the experience of sitting down with a child and an ipad is quite the same as with a physical book. Maybe I'm old-fashioned
But as technology improves, who knows?
Hi Susanna. I think a good rule of thumb moving forward is to always expect that technology will catch up to need. I predict you'll see dedicated picture book e-readers that will reproduce the traditional picture book reading experience remarkably well. Look at something like this:
http://www.techfever.net/images/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/Kno-Single-Screen-Tablet-Textbook.jpg
And you'll start to get a sense of what's coming. An inexpensive picture book reader will come, and it will be a major game changer for that genre.
I see picture books, going the way of "animated picture books." I see picture books being fully animated,
and one experiences those on your ipad/personal hand held computer. As I see "magazines," going in
this direction as well. Fully animated imagery to support, fine writing. So the experience could be
much more emotional, and intimately support the words. You will have "mini-films," quite literally.
Which is not to say that picture books aren't emotional. I think the experience will just expand.
If artists aren't in animation, and they want to be busy in the future, they might consider getting into it.
Animation is going to explode in the future. Much larger than it is currently. That, and gaming.
But that's another website.
We are becoming, or perhaps we already are, slaves of pc technology. Whilst I agree with progress, I believe we shouldn’t forsake tradition. If ‘books’ become ‘films’, they will no longer be books. Do we really want a world where literature will depend on electricity ?
Leila, I'd say this: since I've gotten a Nook, I've read –and purchased — more books than at any time in the last decade. And the experience of reading an ebook on a Nook (or a Kindle, I imagine) is almost exactly like reading it on paper.
I also think that will be plenty of room for books that talk, move and sing and books that are simply words and static pictures.
Remember — it's not the medium…it's the content. There will always be a need for great writing. How it's consumed isn't really the primary issue.
What will people do if/when the electricity goes out? They can't "read" by flashlight if they are reading on a Kindle. It might be a bit awkward to read under the covers by flashlight with a Kindle also. But then what do I know? I'm still in the book mind set and age. Maybe my grandkids will find a way.
Hi Elizabeth – they work on batteries!
But let's not stray from the post too far — what do you all think about the possibility that, in the near future, books may be part of a Netflix-like service rather than sold individually?
A book isn't a book if you can't turn it's paper pages. It's something else — not sure what. I'm not against readers and ebooks but they're not books in my mind. They may tell a story but the writing will have to serve the medium as opposed to the other way around. I struggle with that.
I do not wish to read a book on my TV. Watching the TV and reading a book are too completely different activities. I do own an e-reader but have not enjoyed using it and found it quite difficult to down load the books i like to Australia. A lot of books I've searched for on Amazon do not down load to Australia. Also think about a picture book. They are for sharing and reading aloud often to groups of children and it is again a different experience to watching an animated version on a screen. And in my experience children like to return to a favourite story again and again, pouring over the illustrations and carrying the book around. Would you give a three year old an e-reader to carry around or take to bed? I think these things will exist side by side not to the exclusion of one. I am going to hoard as many good picture books as i can to share with my grandchildren. We will turn the pages and look at the wonderful still pictures together.Later we will watch an animated story on the TV and enjoy both.
This will happen—it's just a matter of when. In fact, it's already happening to some extent in the tech market, through O'Reilly's Safari service.
Google eBookstore is already a cloud-based bookshelf. How long will it be until you can access everything Google has scanned for a monthly fee? Oh, it's coming, and I think it's a beautiful future, too.
Mike Shatzkin, who I respect for his prognostications on the future of publishing, has an excellent post on the subject from May2011: http://www.idealog.com/blog/the-subscription-model-for-ebooks-hasnt-emerged-yet-but-it-will
Jane – Thanks for tipping us to Mike's piece — it's excellent. And yes, I agree: the future is as bright as we choose to make it.
As a reader, I quadrupled my book buying habits when I got my Kindle. I now read 4 books a week instead of one. And finding my next book is a snap! Instead of having to wait until the weekend to drive across town to B&N, and then read the backs of twenty or so books until I find the one I want, I simply log on to the Kindle store, go straight to Amazon's recommendations (the more I read, the more Amazon "gets" me) and choose the next book. It takes about two minutes to finish one book and start devouring the next.
As a writer, I have NO problem with eBooks for that exact reason. Think of the sales potential! I'm still enjoying great stories whether I'm turning a page or clicking a button. I'm just enjoying a whole lot more of them.
The downside is that I write Middle Grade fiction. Right now, there are about 36,000 eBooks available on Kindle under the "Children's" category – but the vast majority of them (and ALL of the top sellers) are YA, not MG or PBs. So I've been worried. How can kids pay for eBooks if they have to have a credit card — and you have to be 18 to have a credit card – and how many parents would give their kids unlimited use of their credit card? (Certainly not me!)
BUT, I think what you describe is the perfect solution to the dilema and I, for one, look forward to it. A parent could pay one set price each month for their kids to have unlimited access to book. This whole idea brings kids into the eLoop.
I can't wait for it to happen!
JJ
I predict we'll continue to have both ebooks and print books. There is a certain satisfaction to turning pages and feeling the book in one's hand. And for browsers in a library, it's easier to stroll along aisles and get attracted to the book jacket. You'd have to sit at a computer in the library and start clicking around to find a title that seemed interesting.
But I think the nooks and kindles will make things easier for travelers, among other things. (My husband is considering getting one for that reason.) Even though I'm a writer, I may eventually get one!) Meanwhile, I'm considering making my self-published book available on Kindle.
I am working summer school and a colleague of mine turned me onto a Tumble Books website. Picture books with audio.http://tinyurl.com/3gh9h4s
Also, I show my students animated fairy tales that I access on line. With the use of LCD projectors/SmartBoards, things are moving in this direction.
I agree with you, Jon. And I have a Kindle… I'm reading more and I don't need my reading glasses; it is more comfortable to hold, and easier on the eyes. That being said, I do think we need to keep both physical print books and ebooks available.
oops, forgot to comment on the whole cloud issue. I can see it happening, but I don't think it will make all other formats obsolete. Many people have a "thing" for collecting stuff, so there will always be a market for individual sales. It just might not be as big.
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